Maido da Yawon shakatawa na Dominican Karya ne? Simpson's Paradox Yana Kallon Gaskiya

1. Tare da yawon shakatawa kasancewa muhimmin sashi na tattalin arzikin duniya, murmurewa a cikin dukkan ƙasashe yana da mahimmanci.
2. Kwanan baya Ma'aikatar yawon bude ido ta Dominican ta gabatar da bayanai da ke nuna sashen yana samun murmurewa mai ban mamaki.
3. Duk da yake bayanai daidai ne, fassarar na iya barin mutum ɗaya yana tambayar alamar irin wannan murmurewa.

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Farfadowa shine burin dukkan ƙasashe, tunda yawon shakatawa muhimmin sashi ne na tattalin arzikin duniya, amma musamman na waɗanda ke da yawon buɗe ido a matsayin muhimmin ɓangaren tattalin arzikin.

A cikin 'yan makonnin nan, Ma'aikatar yawon shakatawa ta Dominican ya gabatar da bayanan da za su tabbatar da ingantaccen dawowar yawon shakatawa na Dominican. Bayanai daidai ne, amma fassarar su na buƙatar bincike wanda ke sanya fitilun shaida da inuwa na wannan murmurewa, dangane da bayanan duniya waɗanda ke tara bayanan sashi na halaye daban -daban.

Tsawon shekaru hamsin, an yi nazarin tasirin wanda a zahiri an lura da shi fiye da ƙarni da suka gabata, sabanin Simpson. Ana iya samun ƙarshen ƙage yayin da kididdiga ta haɗa bayanai marasa daidaituwa. Ba tare da shigar da cikakkun bayanai na wannan ka'idar lissafi ba, muna lura cewa yana ba da damar fahimtar wasu iyakokin fassarar bayanai ta Ma'aikatar yawon shakatawa ta Dominican, bayanai, waɗanda gaskiyar su, muke maimaitawa don gujewa rashin fahimta, ba a tambaya.

Muhimmancin fahimtar waɗannan iyakokin baya buƙatar wata hujja a cikin ƙasar da, a cikin 2019, ta hanyar samun kuɗin musayar waje, yawon shakatawa ya ba da gudummawar 8.4% ga GDP, wanda ke wakiltar kashi 36.4% na fitar da kayayyaki da ayyuka. Haka kuma, yawon bude ido, duk da karkatar da kashi 13% idan aka kwatanta da na 2018, ya ba da gudummawa a cikin 2019 zuwa kusan 30% na Zuba Jari na Kasashen waje.

Don waɗannan dalilai, tabbataccen tabbaci na sanarwa cewa a Jamhuriyar Dominican, sashin yawon bude ido ya bar ta a baya rikicin da COVID-19 ya haifar yana da mahimmanci ga manufofin jama'a na kasar, tare da jagorantar yanke shawara na tattalin arziƙi na masu gudanar da sashin.

Bari mu tuna manyan bayanan da Ma'aikatar ta kawo:

-Masu shigowa ba mazauna ta jirgin sama, a watan Agusta na wannan shekara, suna wakiltar kashi 96% na waɗanda ke cikin 2019, yanayin da ya fi tabbatar da abin da ya faru a farkon rabin Satumba.

- An tabbatar da wannan yanayin ta nazarin kowane wata na dawo da wannan alamar tun lokacin murmurewa. idan aka kwatanta da 2019, yana ƙaruwa, daga 34% a cikin Janairu-Fabrairu, zuwa kusan 50% a cikin Maris-Afrilu, zuwa kusan 80% a watan Mayu-Yuni da 95% a Yuli-Agusta.

-Zuwan mutanen da ba 'yan Dominican ba suna ta ƙaruwa a hankali tsawon watanni goma.

- Yawan masu yawon bude ido da ke zama a otal -otal shine kashi 73%.

Waɗannan duk cikakkun bayanai ne na gaskiya. Koyaya, Simpson yana tunatar da mu cewa suna nufin samfuran da ke tara ƙungiyoyi daban -daban da lokuta daban -daban.

Binciken cikakken lokacin zai yi daidai idan da an sami kwanciyar hankali a masu isowa a matakin kowane wata a cikin lokacin da aka zaɓa don kwatantawa. Wannan ba haka bane, kuma watanni na 2019 ba daidai suke da irin wannan kwatancen da 2021. A waccan shekarar, masu aikin yawon shakatawa da hannu sun taɓa tasirin mutuwar wasu masu yawon buɗe ido tsakanin watan Mayu zuwa Yuni, wanda ya juye da ci gaban da aka samu a yawon buɗe ido na Arewacin Amurka. a farkon rabin shekara (kusan 10%) a cikin raguwar 3% a cikin watanni goma na farko (4% idan an yi la'akari da yawan masu zuwa daga ƙasashen waje).

Wannan yana buƙatar rarrabe adadin wannan kashi 96% a watan Agusta ko sama da 110% a cikin sati biyu na farko na wannan watan saboda murmurewar mai ƙididdigewa (masu isowa 2021) da kuma yawan raguwar adadin (masu isowa na 2019).

Wannan tasirin yana da nauyi musamman idan an rushe masu isowa bisa wani sashi na rashin mutunci, yana bambanta waɗanda ba mazaunan Dominican ba daga na baƙi.

Muna yin haka a tebur mai zuwa inda muke gabatar da wannan bayanai, na watan Janairu-Agusta, wanda ya fara a 2013.

shekara	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
D	414598	433922	498684	546051	538350	616429	707570	345888	811156
F	2891870	3175033	3394208	3619147	3861774	4027620	3956466	1293650	2081389

Waɗannan bayanan, ba tare da yin tambaya game da kwatancen Ma'aikatar na watan Agusta ba, sun sake girman ta, ganin cewa a cikin watanni takwas, jimillar masu isowa sune kashi 60% na na 2019 kuma dole ne mu koma 2013 don nemo ƙaramin adadi . Wannan kwatancen na ƙarshe yana nufin bayanan gaba ɗaya, amma idan za mu mai da hankali kan na baƙi kawai, wannan zai ba da kashi 53%, idan aka kwatanta da 2019, da 72%, idan aka kwatanta da 2013.

Yin la’akari da waɗanda ba mazauna ƙasashen waje yana da mahimmanci ba saboda ‘yan asalin ƙasar Dominican waɗanda ba mazauna ba wataƙila ba sa yin amfani da ƙarin ayyuka kamar otal, gidajen abinci, sufuri. Wannan kallon da ba mai fa'ida ba yana da goyon bayan zama na otal, wanda, duk da kasancewar baƙi 86% na waɗanda aka shigar, ƙasa da wannan adadin, yayin da a cikin tarihi kashi biyu cikin ɗari suka kasance iri ɗaya.

Akwai wani bayanan da bai yi kama da juna ba dangane da yawon buɗe ido mai shigowa wanda ya kamata a damu. Wannan bayanan, wanda aka gabatar a tebur na gaba, yana nufin rushewar masu isowa ta yankin asalin waɗanda ba mazauna ba.

shekara	Amirka ta Arewa	Turai	South America	Amurka ta tsakiya
2018	60.8%	22.4%	12.6%	3.9%
2019	61.9%	21.6%	12%	4.1%
2020	61.2%	24.7%	10.7%	3%
2021	70.6%	14.6%	9.5%	5%

Bayanai mafi dacewa don tunaninmu shine haɓaka yawon shakatawa na Arewacin Amurka tare da raguwar hakan daga Turai. Idan aka yi la'akari da wannan bayanan tare da abin da ya shafi ƙasa, wanda muka yi sharhi a kaikaice, da alama ba za a iya rama mummunan tasirin raguwar yawon buɗe ido na Turai ba saboda karuwar yawon buɗe ido ta Arewacin Amurka.

Hakanan wannan bayanan yana goyan bayan bayanan Turai game da dawo da zirga -zirgar jiragen saman Turai. Kwatancen tsakanin wannan bazara da shekarun baya ya nuna cewa kashi 40% na zirga -zirgar 2019 ne kawai aka dawo dasu, tare da haɓaka idan aka kwatanta da 2020, lokacin da murmurewa ya kasance 27%. Kuma ya kamata a ƙara da cewa zirga -zirgar jiragen sama ba ma alama ce mai kama da juna ba, tunda a Turai an sami ɗan dawo da zirga -zirgar da yakamata ta fi sha'awar yawancin Jamhuriyar Dominican, na jiragen ƙasa tsakanin ƙasashe. A haƙiƙa, waɗanda aka fi dawo da su jiragen sama ne na ƙasashen Turai masu arha. A yau, suna wakiltar kashi 71.4% na jimlar, yayin da shekaru biyu da suka gabata suka wakilci 57.1% kawai, kuma bai kamata a yi watsi da cewa wuraren da suka fi ba da gudummawa sosai ga wannan sakamakon ba, ta wata hanya, suna wakiltar madaidaicin tayin yawon shakatawa na Caribbean.

Don wannan dole ne a ƙara cewa matakan Green Pass na Turai ba sa fifita yawon buɗe ido zuwa Turai ko dai saboda allurar da aka fi amfani da ita a Jamhuriyar Dominican, Sinovac ba ta ba da damar karɓar Green Pass. Wannan na iya zama abin tambaya, amma tabbas yana shafar ɓangaren hukumar tafiye-tafiye, ta yadda sakamakon da aka samu shine cewa har yanzu akwai sauran rina a kaba kafin yawon buɗe ido na Dominican ya koma ainihin matakan cutar.

Yin la'akari da murmurewar yanayin cutar kafin kamuwa da cutar sakamakon kulawar cutar wataƙila yana da kyakkyawan fata, kuma a kowane hali, da alama ba zai iya faruwa cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci ba.

Wannan yana nufin cewa, ba tare da bayar da mahimmin mahimmanci ga haɓaka wasu ƙananan adadi a cikin waɗannan ɗaruruwan ba, ya zama dole a yi tunani game da manufofin sake kunnawa duba da tsakiyar wa'adin 2023.

Rahoton kwanan nan da Majalisar Balaguro da Balaguro ta Duniya ke ba da shawara don aiwatar da ayyukan da gwamnatoci ke yi, kamar saka hannun jari da jan hankalin saka hannun jari na kamfanoni a cikin kayan aikin jiki da na dijital da haɓaka ɓangarorin tafiye -tafiye na musamman, kamar yawon shakatawa na likita ko yawon shakatawa na MICE. Wannan yana nuna wata manufa ta duniya, wacce ba ta bangaranci ba wacce kuma ta shafi sauran bangarorin al'umma.

Darakta janar mai kula da UNCTAD ya yi irin wannan tunani watanni biyu da suka gabata, inda ya dage kan bukatar sake tunani kan tsarin bunkasa yawon bude ido, inganta yawon shakatawa na kasa da karkara, da kuma na dijital.

Ababen more rayuwa da ake da su a ƙasar suna ba da damar waɗannan ayyukan, kuma wannan yana buƙatar ƙaƙƙarfan manufofin haɓakawa, haɗe tare da kamfanoni masu zaman kansu, ba tare da gamsuwa da gaskiyar cewa ana samun murmurewa ba. Kasancewar a ƙarshen wannan shekarar akwai mutane miliyan 4.5 ko miliyan 5, har yanzu kaɗan idan aka kwatanta da shekarun da suka gabata, ba zai kawo babban canji ba, sai dai idan an samar da yanayi don sake kunna sashin, wanda zai ba da damar ƙasar kula da matsayin sa a cikin yawon shakatawa na Caribbean.

#tasuwa