The Transportungiyar Jirgin Sama ta Duniya (IATA) ta fitar da hasashen tattalin arzikinta na masana'antar sufurin jiragen sama ta duniya wanda ya nuna cewa ana sa ran kamfanonin jiragen sama za su yi hasarar dala biliyan 84.3 a shekarar 2020 don ribar ribar -20.1%. Kudaden shiga za su ragu da kashi 50% zuwa dala biliyan 419 daga dala biliyan 838 a shekarar 2019. A shekarar 2021, ana sa ran za a rage asara zuwa dala biliyan 15.8 yayin da kudaden shiga ya karu zuwa dala biliyan 598.
“A kudi, shekarar 2020 za ta yi kasa a matsayin mafi muni a tarihin zirga-zirgar jiragen sama. A matsakaita, kowace rana ta wannan shekara za ta ƙara dala miliyan 230 zuwa asarar masana'antu. Gabaɗaya wannan hasarar dala biliyan 84.3 ke nan. Yana nufin cewa - bisa kiyasin kiyasin fasinjoji biliyan 2.2 a bana - kamfanonin jiragen sama za su yi asarar dala 37.54 ga kowane fasinja. Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa tallafin kuɗi na gwamnati ya kasance kuma yana da mahimmanci yayin da kamfanonin jiragen sama ke ƙonewa ta hanyar kuɗi, ”in ji Alexandre de Juniac, Babban Darakta kuma Shugaba na IATA.
“Idan har ba a sami guguwar COVID-19 ta biyu da ta fi muni ba, mafi munin rugujewar ababen hawa na iya kasancewa a bayanmu. Makullin farfadowa shine aiwatar da matakan sake farawa da duniya baki ɗaya ta hanyar Hukumar Kula da Sufurin Jiragen Sama ta Duniya (ICAO) don kiyaye fasinjoji da ma'aikatan jirgin. Kuma, tare da taimakon ingantacciyar hanyar tuntuɓar juna, ya kamata waɗannan matakan su baiwa gwamnatoci kwarin gwiwar buɗe iyakokin ba tare da matakan keɓewa ba. Wannan wani muhimmin bangare ne na farfadowar tattalin arziki domin kusan kashi 10% na GDPn duniya daga yawon bude ido ne kuma yawancin hakan ya dogara ne kan tafiye-tafiyen jiragen sama. Samun mutane su sake tashi cikin aminci zai zama haɓakar tattalin arziki mai ƙarfi, "in ji de Juniac.
Babban Direbobin Hasashen 2020:
Bukatar fasinja evaporated as international borders closed and countries locked down to prevent the spread of the virus. This is the biggest driver of industry losses. At the low point in April, global air travel was roughly 95% below 2019 levels. There are indications that traffic is slowly improving. Nonetheless, traffic levels (in Revenue Passenger Kilometer) for 2020 are expected to fall by 54.7% compared to 2019. Passenger numbers will roughly halve to 2.25 billion, approximately equal to 2006 levels. Capacity, however, cannot be adjusted quickly enough with a 40.4% decline expected for the year.
Kudaden shiga na fasinja ana sa ran faduwa zuwa dala biliyan 241 (sau da dala biliyan 612 a shekarar 2019). Wannan ya fi faɗuwar buƙatu, yana nuna faɗuwar kashi 18% na yawan fasinja yayin da kamfanonin jiragen sama ke ƙoƙarin ƙarfafa mutane su sake tashi ta hanyar haɓaka farashin. Ana sa ran abubuwan ɗaukar nauyi za su matsakaita 62.7% don 2020, wasu maki 20 cikin ɗari ƙasa da babban rikodin 82.5% da aka samu a cikin 2019.
Halin kaka ba sa faɗuwa da sauri kamar buƙata. Jimlar kashe kuɗi na dala biliyan 517 shine 34.9% ƙasa da matakan 2019 amma kudaden shiga zasu ga raguwar 50%. Kudin rukunin da ba na mai ba zai karu sosai da kashi 14.1%, saboda ana yada tsayayyen farashin akan fasinjoji kaɗan. Ƙananan amfani da jiragen sama da kujeru a sakamakon ƙuntatawa zai kuma ƙara tsada.
Farashin mai bayar da wani taimako. A cikin 2019 man fetur na jet ya kai $ 77 / ganga yayin da matsakaicin hasashen 2020 shine $ 36.8. Ana sa ran man fetur zai yi lissafin kashi 15% na farashin gabaɗaya (idan aka kwatanta da 23.7% a cikin 2019).
ofishin ita ce tabo mai haske. Idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2019, ana sa ran yawan nauyin jigilar kaya zai ragu da tan miliyan 10.3 zuwa tan miliyan 51. Koyaya, ana sa ran karancin kayan dakon kaya a cikin jirgin sama na fasinja zai tashi sama da kashi 30% na shekara. Kudaden shiga na kaya zai kai kusan dala biliyan 110.8 a cikin 2020 (daga dala biliyan 102.4 a shekarar 2019). A matsayin wani ɓangare na kudaden shiga na masana'antu, kaya zai ba da gudummawa kusan 26% - sama da 12% a cikin 2019.
Ayyukan Yankin 2020
Duk yankuna za su ba da asara a cikin 2020. Rikicin ya ɗauki nau'i iri ɗaya a duk sassan duniya tare da raguwar ƙarfin aiki kusan kashi 10-15 cikin ɗari ko fiye a bayan faɗuwar sama da 50%.
| Region | Buƙatar Fasinja (RPKs) | Ƙarfin Fasinja (ASKs) | Ribar Net | jawabinsa |
| Global | -54.7% | -40.4% | - $ 84.3b | |
| Amirka ta Arewa | -52.6% | -35.2% | - $ 23.1b | Manyan kasuwannin cikin gida na Arewacin Amurka da tallafin kuɗi ga dilolin Amurka a ƙarƙashin Dokar CARES ana sa ran za su taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen farfadowa. |
| Turai | -56.4% | -42.9% | - $ 21.5b | Ci gaba da buɗe tafiye-tafiye na cikin-Turai yana da yuwuwar haɓaka murmurewa, muddin aka guji matakan keɓancewa. Za a buƙaci a sarrafa igiyoyin da ke da alaƙa da fakitin agaji na gwamnati, musamman don dalilai na muhalli, don guje wa sakamakon da ba a yi niyya ba kamar lalacewar gasa. |
| Asia-Pacific | -53.8% | -39.2% | - $ 29.0b | Asiya-Pacific ita ce yanki na farko da ya ji zafin rikicin COVID-19. Ana sa ran za a saka mafi girman asara a cikin 2020. |
| Middle East | -56.1% | -46.1% | - $ 4.8b | Rage farashin mai zai kara matsin lamba ga mawuyacin halin tattalin arziki a yankin. Ana iya jinkirta dawo da manyan hanyoyin haɗin gwiwar yankin tare da sa ran sake farawa tare da na gida da na yanki sannan kuma hanyoyin ƙasa da ƙasa mai nisa. |
| Latin America | -57.4% | -43.3% | - $ 4.0b | Latin Amurka ta shiga cikin rikicin da jinkiri. Gwamnatocin yankin sun aiwatar da wasu tsauraran matakai ta fuskar rufe iyakokin da ka iya kawo tsaiko da kuma dakile murmurewa. |
| Afirka | -58.5% | -50.4% | - $ 2.0b | Har yanzu ba a gama ganin yadda cutar ke yaduwa a wannan yanki ba. Sai dai duk da haka, rufe iyakokin duk sun dakatar da jirage. Za a buƙaci masu ba da agaji na ƙasa da ƙasa don ƙara ƙayyadaddun hanyoyin da gwamnatocin yankin za su ba da kayan agaji. |
Rage asarar a cikin 2021
Tare da buɗe kan iyakoki da haɓaka buƙatu a cikin 2021, ana tsammanin masana'antar za ta rage asarar ta zuwa dala biliyan 15.8 don ribar riba ta -2.6%. Kamfanonin jiragen sama za su kasance cikin yanayin farfadowa amma har yanzu suna ƙasa da matakan pre-rikici (2019) akan matakan aiki da yawa:
- Jimlar lambobin fasinja Ana sa ran komawa zuwa biliyan 3.38 (kusan matakan 2014 lokacin da akwai matafiya biliyan 3.33), wanda ya yi ƙasa da matafiya biliyan 4.54 a cikin 2019.
- Gaba daya kudaden shiga ana tsammanin zai zama dala biliyan 598 wanda zai zama haɓaka 42% akan 2020, amma har yanzu 29% ƙasa da dala biliyan 2019 na 838.
- Kudaden raka'a ana sa ran faduwar farashin da aka kayyade a cikin fasinjoji fiye da na 2020. Amma ci gaba da matakan sarrafa ƙwayoyin cuta za su iyakance ribar da ake samu ta hanyar rage yawan amfani da jiragen.
- Kaya fadada sawun a cikin masana'antar sufurin jiragen sama zai kasance. Kudaden shigar da kaya za su kai dala biliyan 138 (karu da kashi 25% akan 2020). Wannan shine kusan kashi 23% na jimlar kudaden shiga na masana'antu, kusan ninki biyu na rabon tarihi. Ana sa ran buƙatun jigilar jiragen za su yi ƙarfi yayin da kasuwancin ke dawowa a farkon haɓakar tattalin arziƙin, yayin da jinkirin dawowar jiragen fasinja zai iyakance haɓakar ƙarfin jigilar kaya, da kuma ci gaba da samar da kayayyaki a matakan 2020.
- Farashin man jet ana sa ran za ta haura zuwa dala 51.8 a kowace ganga a wannan shekara, yayin da harkokin tattalin arzikin duniya da bukatar man fetur ke karuwa. Yayin da hakan zai kara matsin lamba kan kamfanonin jiragen sama, farashin kowace ganga yana kama da 2016 ($ 52.1) kuma har yanzu zai kasance mafi ƙanƙanta tun 2004 ($ 49.7).
"Har yanzu kamfanonin jiragen sama za su kasance masu tabarbarewar kudi a shekarar 2021. Kudaden shiga fasinja zai yi kasa da kashi daya bisa uku na shekarar 2019. Kuma ana sa ran kamfanonin jiragen sama za su yi asarar kusan dala 5 ga kowane fasinja da ke dauke da su. Rage asarar da aka yi zai fito ne daga iyakokin da aka sake bude wanda zai haifar da karuwar yawan matafiya. Ƙarfin ayyukan jigilar kaya da ƙarancin farashin mai kuma za su ba masana'antar haɓaka. Gasa tsakanin kamfanonin jiragen sama ko shakka babu za ta fi tsanani. Wannan zai fassara zuwa ƙarfafawa mai ƙarfi ga matafiya don sake hawa sararin sama. Kalubalen na 2022 zai mayar da raguwar asarar 2021 zuwa ribar da kamfanonin jiragen sama za su buƙaci biyan basussukan su daga wannan mummunan rikicin, "in ji de Juniac.
Farfadowa Mai Kalubale
Kodayake asara za ta ragu sosai a cikin 2021 daga matakan 2020, ana sa ran farfadowar masana'antar zai yi tsayi da ƙalubale. Wasu dalilai sun haɗa da:
- Matakan Bashi: Kamfanonin jiragen sama sun shiga 2020 a cikin ingantacciyar sigar kuɗi. Bayan shekaru goma na riba, matakan basussuka sun yi ƙasa sosai (dala biliyan 430, kusan rabin kudaden shiga na shekara). Mahimman matakan ba da agajin kuɗi na gwamnatoci sun hana kamfanonin jiragen sama yin fatara amma sun ba da bashi da dala biliyan 120 zuwa dala biliyan 550 wanda shine kusan kashi 92% na kudaden shiga da ake sa ran a shekarar 2021. Ya kamata a mai da hankali ga ƙarin matakan agaji don taimakawa kamfanonin jiragen sama su samar da ƙarin jarin aiki da kuma buƙatu masu kuzari. maimakon kara fadada bashi.
- Ingantaccen aiki: Matakan duniya da aka amince da su don sake farawa masana'antu, na tsawon lokacin da aka aiwatar da su, za su canza mahimmancin sigogin aiki. Misali, nisantar jiki yayin hawan jirgi/tasowa, ƙarin tsaftacewa mai zurfi da ƙarin duba gida duk zai ƙara lokaci zuwa ayyuka wanda zai rage yawan amfani da jirgin sama.
- koma bayan tattalin arziki: Zurfin da tsawon lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zuwa zai yi tasiri sosai ga kasuwanci da amincewar mabukaci. Bukatun da ake buƙata na iya haifar da tashin hankali na farko a cikin lambobin balaguro amma dorewa hakan yana iya buƙatar haɓakar farashi kuma hakan zai sanya matsin lamba kan riba.
- Amincewar: Hanyoyin tafiye-tafiye na iya canzawa. Budewar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama a hankali na iya samun ci gaba, farawa daga kasuwannin cikin gida, sannan kuma na yanki da kuma, a ƙarshe, na duniya. Bincike ya nuna cewa kusan kashi 60 cikin 69 na matafiya za su yi sha'awar sake tafiye-tafiye a cikin 'yan watanni da barkewar cutar. Irin wannan binciken ya kuma nuna cewa mafi girman kaso na matafiya har sai yanayin kuɗin su ya daidaita (80%) ko kuma idan matakan keɓe keɓe (sama da XNUMX%).
"Mutane za su so sake tashi sama, muddin sun sami kwarin gwiwa game da yanayin kuɗin su da kuma matakan da aka ɗauka don kiyaye matafiya. Babu wani littafin wasan kwaikwayo na gaskiya da aka gwada don murmurewa daga COVID-19 amma shirin sake farawa na ICAO Takeoff yana fayyace jituwa a duniya. Yana da mahimmanci masana'antu da gwamnatoci su bi ta don matafiya su sami mafi girman tabbaci game da amincin su. Hakan zai zama kyakkyawan farawa. Kuma ya danganta da yadda cutar ta bulla, ilimin kwayar cutar ya zurfafa, ko kuma kimiyya ta inganta, masana'antu da gwamnatoci za su kasance cikin shiri da kyau don mayar da martani mai hade da duniya. Wannan ya haɗa da yuwuwar cire matakan lokacin da lafiya. Hakan zai bai wa kamfanonin jiragen sama wasu daki don sake gina buƙatu da gyara ma'auni da suka lalace," in ji de Juniac.
#tasuwa
ABUBUWAN DA ZA KU GUDU DAGA WANNAN LABARI:
- However, a severe shortage in cargo capacity due to the unavailability of belly cargo on (grounded) passenger aircraft is expected to push rates up by some 30% for the year.
- The crisis has taken on a similar dimension in all parts of the world with capacity cuts lagging about 10-15 percentage points or more behind the over-50% fall in demand.
- This is greater than the fall in demand, reflecting an expected 18% fall in passenger yields as airlines try to encourage people to fly again through price stimulation.
