2017 shekara mai ban mamaki don jigilar kaya - yaushe ne jam'iyyar zata ƙare?

Disamba 2017 ya ga ci gaban shekara-shekara (YoY) na 4.5% a cikin adadin jigilar kayayyaki na duniya. Manyan masu ba da gudummawa sune yankunan asalin Asiya Pacific (+8%) da Arewacin Amurka (+5.1%). Ci gaban Turai ya kasance 2.2% kawai, yayin da jigilar iska da ta samo asali daga Afirka ta sami kwangila da kashi 7.5%. MESA (Gabas ta Tsakiya & Kudancin Asiya) da Amurka ta Tsakiya & Kudancin Amurka sun sami karuwa a mataki tare da matsakaicin duniya. Turai ce ta girma a matsayin makoma (+6.8%). Haɓaka yawan amfanin ƙasa, duk da haka, ya ja hankalin mafi yawan hankali: yawan amfanin ƙasa baki ɗaya ya karu da 10% YoY, wanda aka auna a cikin EUR, kuma ta hanyar 23.5% (!) a cikin USD. Idan aka kwatanta da Nuwamba, amfanin dalar Amurka ya karu da kashi 2.5%, wani abin lura, kamar yadda yawan amfanin gona ya ragu tsakanin Nuwamba da Disamba.

Don kwata na 4 a gaba ɗaya, haɓakar ƙarar YoY ya kasance 6.6%, mai ban sha'awa a cikin hasken gaskiyar cewa jigilar iska - bayan shekaru na rashin aikin yi - ya fara girma kamar daga Satumba 2016. Tabbas, wannan gaskiyar ta sa ya fi girma. 'da wuya' masana'antu don yin rikodin ƙididdiga masu girma na shekara-shekara a cikin ƙarshen 2017. Duk da haka, wannan wahalar bai tsaya a cikin hanyar samun karuwar kudaden shiga ga kamfanonin jiragen sama a Q4 ba, kamar yadda yawan amfanin da aka samu a USD ya fara zuwa. ya karu da adadin lambobi biyu daidai daga watan Satumbar 2017…Rashin iya aiki a kasuwanni da dama, canjin canjin kudi da hauhawar farashin mai duk suna da rawar da zasu taka a sakamakon karuwar kudaden shiga na kamfanonin jiragen sama a duniya sama da kashi 25% a cikin kwata na karshe. na hakika na ban mamaki na shekarar jigilar kaya ta iska.

Za mu iya kiran 2017 a amince da shekara ta gaske. An karya bayanai da yawa, kuma yawancin alamun sun tsaya akan kore kusan tsawon shekara guda. Duk da haka, shekarar ba ta bambanta da sauran shekarun ba a cikin ma'anar cewa 2017 kuma ya san masu nasara da masu hasara: asali & garuruwan da ake nufi, sassa da kamfanonin da suka girma, wasu da suka ragu a baya. Anan ga babban matakin mu na YoY.

Yayin da jigilar kayayyaki na gabaɗaya ya karu da 10.5%, ƙayyadaddun samfuran kaya sun haɓaka da 7.4%, wanda ya haifar da haɓakar girma na 9.6% (10.8% a DTK). Haɓaka yawan amfanin ƙasa (a cikin dalar Amurka) shima ya fi girma a cikin kaya gabaɗaya (+9.4% vs +5.9%). Rukunin da ke da girman girma mafi girma sune Vulnerables & High Tech, Pharmaceuticals da Flowers, suna nuna ci gaban dalar Amurka na 8%, 5.4% da 1% bi da bi.

Manyan-20 na gaba a duniya sun kasance kulob na musamman, ba tare da barin sabbin membobi su shiga su ba: haɓakarsu ya yi daidai da ci gaban kasuwa gabaɗaya, kodayake Top-5 (DHL Global Forwarding, Kuehe + Nagel, DB Schenker, Expeditors) Int'l da Panalpina) a matsayin ƙungiya sun fi abokan aikinsu girma (+16% vs +14%). GSA ya fi kyau a Asiya Pacific (+15% girma girma), Turai (+12%) da MESA (+11%).

Daga cikin manyan biranen asali na 50, huɗu sun sami haɓaka sama da 20%: Hanoi (wanda ke jagorantar 25.5%), Brussels, Colombo da Ho Chi Minh City. Hong Kong ya kasance asalin mu Nr 1, yana haɓaka 16%. Daga cikin tushen-10 na sama, Amsterdam da Los Angeles sune waɗanda ke nuna ɗan ƙaramin girma fiye da matsakaicin duniya. Daga cikin manyan wuraren da ake zuwa, Doha (wanda ke kan gaba da kashi 42%), Shanghai, Osaka, Hanoi, Mexico City, Chennai da Campinas duk sun haɓaka adadin masu shigowa da sama da kashi 20%.

Hannun jarin jimillar kasuwanci na ƙungiyoyin kamfanonin jirgin sama guda ɗaya sun kasance daidai gwargwado. Banda? Kamfanonin jiragen sama daga Afirka: yayin da kasuwancin yankinsu ya koma baya, haɓakar su gabaɗaya ya fi girma fiye da ci gaban da wasu ƙungiyoyi suka samu. Kamfanonin jiragen sama da ke Asiya Pasifik sun haɓaka da ɗan matsakaita a cikin 2017, yayin da kamfanonin jiragen sama da ke Turai, Amurka da MESA suka koma baya, kodayake kaɗan ne kawai, don haka suna ba da ɗan ƙaramin yanki na gabaɗayan kek.

Tare da ingantattun abubuwan da ke ci gaba a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, babbar tambaya ita ce tsawon lokacin da duk wannan zai ci gaba. Kamar yadda aka ruwaito Mark Twain ya taɓa faɗi, yana da wahala a faɗi tsinkaya, musamman game da makomar…