Menene dalilin afkawa Kenya?

Kai hari kan masana'antar tafiye-tafiye da yawon bude ido shine tsarin tafiyar da kusan kowace kungiyar ta'addanci a duniya. Yawon shakatawa masana'anta ce mai rauni kuma kai hari kan ababen more rayuwa na yawon shakatawa na iya samun asarar tattalin arziki mai yawa, kuma mafarki ne na PR ga kowace ƙasa.y, bisa ga ƙungiyar ba da shawara kan tsaro da balaguro da ke Amurka bokan. tafiya

Al-Shabaab ya da'awar alhakin harin ta'addanci a Nairobi inda aka kashe mutane da dama tare da jikkata. Tambayar da harin ta'addanci ya haifar shine dalilin da yasa kungiyar ke ci gaba da kai hari a Kenya. Moina Spooner na Tattaunawar Afirka da Julius Maina sun tattauna da Brendon Cannon da Martin Plaut.

Menene Al-Shabaab?

Brendon Cannon: Al-Shabaab kungiyar ta'addanci ce ta masu kishin Islama da aka kafa a Somaliya a cikin shekaru goma na farkon wannan karni. Asalin shugabancinsa shine alaƙa tare da Al-Qaeda, wanda ya horar kuma ya yi yaki a Afghanistan.

Al-Shabaab asali sadaukar da kai don kawar da tasirin kasashen waje daga Somaliya da kuma kawo tsauraran tsarin mulkin Musulunci a kasar. A tsawon karfinsa. kusa da 2008-2010, ta mallaki babban birnin Mogadishu, babban birnin kasar, da wani yanki mai girman gaske a kudu da yammacin babban birnin kasar, ciki har da tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Merca da Kismayo.

Da farko, al-Shabaab wani Kungiya mai adalci kuma ta daya, wacce duk da bambance-bambancen akida da dabara, ta samu karbuwa ne a karkashin Ahmed Abdi Godane aka Mukhtar Abu Zubair, shugaban kungiyar lokacin da ta kai hari kan Westgate a shekarar 2013.

Bayan mutuwarsa a shekara ta 2014, an ba da rahoton cewa al-Shabaab ta wargaje. Wannan na iya bayyana wani bangare na tagwayen hare-haren da kungiyar ta kai kan kasashen Somaliya da Kenya. Wato mayakan na Kenya da ke samun horo da kuma rashin alaka da kungiyar al-Shabaab, da alama suna da alhakin a kalla wasu hare-haren da ake kai wa a Kenya, musamman a arewa maso gabashin kasar.

Menene dalilinta na kai hari Kenya?

Brendon Cannon: Kungiyar ta fara kai hari hari a wajen Somaliya a shekarar 2007. Harin farko da ta kai a kasar Kenya a shekarar 2008. Gwamnatin Kenya ta mayar da martani da karfi. A 2011, zuwa "kare tsaron kasa", Dakarun tsaron kasar sun shiga kudancin Somaliya ne domin samar da wani yanki mai ban sha'awa tsakanin yankunan da ke hannun al-Shabaab da kuma Kenya. Ana cikin haka ne sojojin Kenya suka kwace tashar jiragen ruwa ta Kismayo tare da shiga cikin gaggawa da dakarun wanzar da zaman lafiya a Somaliya domin yakar al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab jama'a jihohi hare-haren nata na ramuwar gayya ne ga kutsen da sojojin Kenya suka yi a Somaliya. Yana kuma baratar da su dalilai masu ban tsoro hade da jihadin kasa da kasa.

Amma kuma yana da kwarin guiwar kai hari Kenya saboda fa'idodin da ake samu ta hanyar daukar ma'aikata da tara kudade wadanda wani bangare ne na yada labarai na kasa da kasa. Wato labarin hare-haren da kungiyar ta kai a Kenya ba da gangan ba, ya samar da wata kafa ta al-Shabaab ta baje kolin hare-haren ta da ‘yan tacewa da kuma amfani da irin wadannan labaran na kafafen yada labarai a cikin farfagandanta. Sakamakon kashe-kashen da aka yi yakan zama manyan kayan aikin daukar ma'aikata ta fuskar sojan kafa da kudade.

Haka kuma tana kai hare-hare saboda yana iya. Kungiyar ta sami damar yin amfani da rashin gwamnati mai karfi a Somaliya da kuma Tsawon kilomita 682 bakin iyaka tsakaninta da Kenya tsawon shekaru da dama.

Tun 2011 kungiyar ya yi hasara kasar Somaliya. Duk da haka, tana ci gaba da kiyaye karfin kuma tana da niyyar yin barna sosai a Somaliya da Kenya. Hare-haren da aka kai a Somaliya yawanci sun kasance masu karamin karfi, suna kai hari ga sojoji da 'yan sanda. An sami wasu manyan al'amura. Misali a shekarar 2017 a kalla Mutane 300 ne suka mutu sakamakon tashin wata babbar mota da aka dasa bama-bamai a tsakiyar birnin Mogadishu.

Martin Plaut: Mamayewar da Kenya ta yi wa Somaliya a 2011 an yi shi ne saboda dalilai masu ma'ana. Amma shawarar da aka yanke na ci gaba ya saba wa shawarar abokanta na duniya - ciki har da Amurka da makwabciyarta Habasha. Sojojin Kenya ya yi yunkurin don kafa Jubaland, tare da raba yankunan Gedo, Lower Juba da Juba ta Tsakiya daga sauran Somaliya. Ya gamu da ɗan nasara.

Wannan yunƙuri na hana al-Shabaab kafa kanta a kan iyakar Kenya ya zama manufa mai nisa, wanda ke haifar da tambayoyi game da tsawon lokacin da za a iya ci gaba da ɗauka da kuma ko wane tsada.

Me yasa Kenya ta fi sauran jihohin gaba?

Brendon Cannon: Kamar yadda aka haskaka a daya daga cikin kwanan nan articles, Kenya ana kai wa hari fiye da Habasha ko wasu kasashen gabashin Afirka. Wannan shi ne saboda dalilai masu ma'ana waɗanda suka dogara ne akan ƙididdigar fa'idar farashi da kasancewar damammaki masu yawa.

Kasar Kenya tana da manyan ganiyar kasa da kasa kuma kafafen yada labarai masu zaman kansu suna yada hare-haren ta'addanci a ko'ina. Wani abu kuma shi ne, Kenya ta ɓullo da fannin yawon buɗe ido mai fa'ida wanda ke ba da manufa mai laushi.

Ƙarin fa'idar ita ce, akwai adadi mai yawa na mayaka 'yan asalin ƙasar Kenya a cikin sahun ƙungiyar waɗanda suka mallaki ilimin cikin gida. Wannan ya taimaka wa al-Shabaab wajen kai hare-hare da kuma kula da gungun ta'addanci a Kenya. Fadada sararin dimokuradiyya da yawan cin hanci da rashawa kuma yana nufin kungiyar za ta iya amfani da gazawar mulkin kasar idan ana maganar tsaro.

Duk waɗannan canje-canjen suna taimaka wa al-Shabaab tsarawa da aiwatar da ayyukan ta'addanci tare da cika burin ƙungiyar na rayuwa ta hanyar kiyaye abubuwan da suka dace.

Menene kimar ku game da martanin nan da nan na Kenya?

Brendon Cannon Rahotannin da suka faru a baya-bayan nan su ne har yanzu rarrabuwa. Amma, da alama ta fuskar tsaro an samu ci gaba tun daga lokacin Jami'ar Garissa harin a 2015 da kuma harin a kan Westgate Mall a 2013.

Da alama martanin da jami'an tsaron Kenya suka bayar, musamman Sashen Sabis na Janar - wani reshe na 'yan sanda a hukumar 'yan sanda ta Kenya - da alama. sun kasance dace kuma in mun gwada da inganci.

Gaskiyar abin bakin ciki ita ce hare-haren da aka hada kai - masu cike da 'yan kunar bakin wake, da kuma 'yan ta'adda masu dauke da muggan makamai a kan wasu wurare masu saukin kai - suna da matukar wahala a dakile. Komai ƙwararru da ƙarfin tsaro.

Martin Plaut: Kamar yadda Murithi Mutiga, na kungiyar International Crisis Group ya yi nuni da cewa, hare-haren da aka kai a baya sun ga yadda Kenya ke ramuwar gayya ga al'ummarta musulmi. Hukumomin kasar sun mayar da martani da kame musulmi bargo da kuma murkushe masu kabilanci a Somaliya. Wannan ya rura wutar tashin hankali da ya kara muni. Yana da mahimmanci kada a maimaita wannan kuskuren. Ta hanyar hada kai ne kawai 'yan Kenya za su iya dakile barazanar wadannan hare-haren ta'addanci.

Me Kenya za ta iya yi don magance wannan matsalar?

Brendon Cannon: Kamar yadda wannan harin ya yi muni, yana da kyau a san cewa manyan wuraren kasuwanci da wuraren yawon bude ido sun kaucewa hare-haren al-Shabaab tun daga 2013 -- har zuwa jiya. Wannan dai ya fi ba da mamaki domin wasu daga cikin al-Shabaab na ci gaba da kwazo kuma suna da karfin ci gaba da kai hare-hare a Kenya.

Ina tambaya da dalilin wasu ‘Yan siyasar da ke bayar da shawarar janyewar sojojin Kenya daga Somalia a matsayin wata hanya da Kenya za ta kaucewa kai hare-hare. Bayan haka, al-Shabaab sun kai hari Kenya sau da dama kafin 2011 lokacin da KDF ta shiga Somaliya.

A ci gaba, dole ne Kenya ta yi ƙoƙari ta tsaurara matakan kula da iyakoki, da watsa ikon gwamnati a duk faɗin ƙasar Kenya tare da sake ƙarfafa yakinta da al-Shabaab a Somaliya: yaƙin da ya haifar da rikici. ya ragu sosai tun 2015.

Wannan wani aiki ne na Herculean kuma wanda ya kamata a yaba wa gwamnatin Kenya da kwararrun jami'an tsaro, idan aka yi la'akari da yanayi da irin barazanar da ake fuskanta, saboda tabuka abin kirki tun daga shekarar 2013.

Martin Plaut: 'Yan Kenya na bukatar su kasance masu hakuri da juriya - don kulla alaka tsakanin al'ummominsu da fuskantar barazanar tare. A sa'i daya kuma akwai bukatar a sake yin nazari sosai kan rawar da Kenya ke takawa a cikin Somaliya. Babu wata alama da ke nuna cewa za a iya murkushe al-Shabaab daga kasashen waje, ko da kuwa za a iya raunana ta.

Gwamnatin Somaliya ta gaza sau da yawa, na baya-bayan nan wajen hana Mukhtar Robow, tsohon kakakin kungiyar al-Shabaab daga shiga. shiga zabe. Lokacin da yadda aka yi wa Robow da kuma babban wakilin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, Nicholas Haysom ya tashe shi, ya kasance. bayyana persona non-grata, yadda ya kamata ya kore shi daga Somalia.

Brendon J. Cannon, Mataimakin Farfesa na Tsaro na kasa da kasa, Cibiyar Kula da Tsaro ta Kasa da Kasa (IICS), Jami'ar Khalifa da kuma Martin Plaut, Babban Jami'in Bincike, Kahon Afirka da Kudancin Afirka, Cibiyar Nazarin Commonwealth, Makarantar Nazarin Ci gaba

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