Mutane suna yawo a cikin adadi mafi girma. Duk da haka, shin akwai isassun matukan jirgi da ma'aikatan jirgin da za su gudanar da aikin da ake sa ran sake farawa da masana'antar sufurin jiragen sama?
Kungiyar sufurin jiragen sama ta kasa da kasa (IATA) tana tunanin haka. Hukumar kula da harkokin sufurin jiragen sama tare da mambobin kamfanonin jiragen sama a duk duniya sun ba da sanarwar haษakawa zuwa hangen nesanta game da ayyukan masana'antar jirgin sama na 2022.
Wannan yana zuwa tare da murmurewa daga rikicin COVID-19.
An bayyana hasashen IATA a cikin wata sanarwa da aka fitar a yau:
- Ana sa ran asarar masana'antu za ta ragu zuwa - dala biliyan 9.7 (an inganta daga hasashen Oktoba na 2021 don asarar dala biliyan 11.6) don ragi mai hasara na -1.2%. Wannan babban ci gaba ne daga asarar dala biliyan 137.7 (-36.0% ragi) a cikin 2020 da dala biliyan 42.1 (-8.3% ragi) a cikin 2021.
- Riba-fadin masana'antu a cikin 2023 ya bayyana a isarwa tare da Arewacin Amurka an riga an sa ran isar da ribar dala biliyan 8.8 a cikin 2022.
- Nasarar inganci da haษakar amfanin gona suna taimaka wa kamfanonin jiragen sama don rage asara har ma da hauhawar farashin ma'aikata da man fetur (na ฦarshe ya haifar da karuwar + 40% a farashin mai na duniya da faษaษa faษuwar faษuwar wannan shekara).
- Kyakkyawar fata na masana'antu da sadaukar da kai ga raguwar hayaki sun bayyana a cikin sa ran isar da jiragen sama sama da 1,200 a shekarar 2022.
- ฦarfin buฦatu mai ฦarfi, ษaga takunkumin tafiye-tafiye a yawancin kasuwanni, ฦarancin rashin aikin yi a yawancin ฦasashe, da faษaษa ajiyar kuษi suna haifar da sake buฦatu na buฦatu wanda zai ga adadin fasinjoji ya kai kashi 83% na matakan riga-kafin cutar a 2022.
- Duk da kalubalen tattalin arziki, ana sa ran adadin kaya zai kafa tarihin tan miliyan 68.4 a shekarar 2022.
โKamfanonin jiragen sama suna da juriya. Mutane suna yawo a cikin adadi mafi girma. Kuma kaya yana aiki da kyau dangane da yanayin rashin tabbas na tattalin arziki. Za a rage asarar zuwa dala biliyan 9.7 a wannan shekara kuma samun riba yana kan gaba don 2023. Lokaci ne na kyakkyawan fata, koda kuwa har yanzu akwai kalubale akan farashi, musamman man fetur, da wasu ฦuntatawa a wasu ฦananan kasuwanni, "in ji Willie. Walsh, Babban Daraktan IATA.
Kudaden shiga suna karuwa yayin da COVID-19 ke da sauฦi kuma mutane suna komawa tafiya. Kalubalen don 2022 shine kiyaye farashi a ฦarฦashin kulawa.
โRaguwar asara ta samo asali ne daga aiki tuฦuru don ci gaba da sarrafa farashi yayin da masanaโantu ke ฦaruwa. Haษakawa a cikin hangen nesa na kuษi ya fito ne daga riฦe farashi zuwa haษakar 44% yayin da kudaden shiga ya karu 55%. Yayin da masana'antar ke komawa zuwa matakan samarwa na yau da kullun kuma tare da hauhawar farashin mai mai yiwuwa zai tsaya na ษan lokaci, riba zai dogara ne akan ci gaba da sarrafa farashi. Kuma wannan ya ฦunshi sarkar darajar. Masu samar da mu, gami da filayen jirgin sama da masu ba da sabis na zirga-zirgar jiragen sama, suna buฦatar mai da hankali sosai kan sarrafa farashi kamar yadda abokan cinikinsu ke tallafawa farfadowar masana'antar, "in ji Walsh.
Ana sa ran kudaden shiga na masana'antu zai kai dala biliyan 782 (+54.5% akan 2021), kashi 93.3% na matakan 2019. Ana sa ran jiragen da aka yi aiki a cikin 2022 za su kai miliyan 33.8, wanda shine kashi 86.9% na matakan 2019 (jigilar jiragen sama miliyan 38.9).
- Kudaden shiga na fasinja ana sa ran za ta kai dala biliyan 498 na kudaden shiga na masana'antu, wanda ya ninka dala biliyan 239 da aka samu a shekarar 2021. Adadin fasinjojin da aka tsara ana sa ran zai kai biliyan 3.8, tare da kilomita RPKs na kudaden shiga ya karu da kashi 97.6% idan aka kwatanta da 2021, wanda ya kai kashi 82.4% na shekarar 2019. zirga-zirga. Kamar yadda aka fitar da buฦatun da ake buฦata tare da sauฦaฦe ฦuntatawa na tafiye-tafiye, ana tsammanin yawan amfanin gona zai tashi da kashi 5.6%. Wannan ya biyo bayan juyin halittar -9.1% a cikin 2020 da + 3.8% a 2021.
- Kudaden shigar kaya ana sa ran za a yi lissafin dala biliyan 191 na kudaden shiga na masana'antu. Hakan ya ragu kadan daga dala biliyan 204 da aka yi rikodin a shekarar 2021, amma kusan ninki biyu na dala biliyan 100 da aka samu a shekarar 2019. Gabaษaya, ana sa ran masana'antar za ta ษauki sama da tan miliyan 68 na kaya a shekarar 2022, wanda ya zama tarihi mafi girma. Yayin da yanayin ciniki ya dan yi laushi, ana sa ran yawan kayan da ake samu zai ragu da kashi 10.4% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2021. Wannan kawai wani bangare ne ke mayar da karuwar yawan amfanin gona da kashi 52.5% a shekarar 2020 da kuma kashi 24.2% a shekarar 2021.
Ana sa ran za a kashe gabaษaya zuwa dala biliyan 796. Wannan shine haษaka 44% a cikin 2021, wanda ke nuna duka farashin tallafawa manyan ayyuka da farashin hauhawar farashi a wasu mahimman abubuwa.
- Fuel: A dala biliyan 192, man fetur shine mafi girman farashin masana'antar a cikin 2022 (24% na farashin gabaษaya, daga 19% a 2021). Wannan ya dogara ne akan matsakaicin farashin danyen Brent na $101.2/ganga da $125.5 na kananzir jet. Ana sa ran kamfanonin jiragen sama za su cinye lita biliyan 321 na mai a shekarar 2022 idan aka kwatanta da lita biliyan 359 da aka sha a shekarar 2019.
Yakin da ake yi a Ukraine yana kara tsadar danyen mai na Brent. Sai dai kuma, man fetur zai kai kusan kashi hudu na kudin da ake kashewa a shekarar 2022. Wani abu na musamman a kasuwar man na bana shi ne yadda ake yaduwa tsakanin farashin danyen mai da jiragen sama. Wannan fashewar jet ษin ya kasance sama da ฦa'idodin tarihi, galibi saboda ฦarancin iya aiki a matatun mai. ฦarฦashin saka hannun jari a wannan yanki na iya nufin cewa bazuwar ya ragu zuwa 2023. A lokaci guda kuma, hauhawar farashin mai da mai na iya ganin kamfanonin jiragen sama sun inganta ingantaccen mai - ta hanyar amfani da jiragen sama masu inganci da kuma yanke shawarar aiki.
- Labor: Labour shine abu na biyu mafi girman farashin aiki na kamfanonin jiragen sama. Ana sa ran yin aiki kai tsaye a sashin zai kai miliyan 2.7, sama da 4.3% a cikin 2021 yayin da masana'antar ke sake ginawa daga babban koma baya na ayyuka a cikin 2020. Har yanzu aiki yana ฦasa da ayyuka miliyan 2.93 a cikin 2019 kuma ana tsammanin zai kasance ฦasa da ฦasa. wannan darajar na wani lokaci. Ana sa ran farashin aikin naรบrar zai zama cents 12.2/samuwa tonne kilomita (ATK) a cikin 2022, wanda yake komawa zuwa matakan 2019 da gaske lokacin da ya kai 12.3 cents/ATK.
Lokacin da ake buฦata don ษaukar aiki, horarwa, cikakken bincike na tsaro / bayanan baya, da aiwatar da wasu hanyoyin da suka wajaba kafin ma'aikata su โshirye-shiryen aikiโ yana gabatar da ฦalubale ga masana'antar a cikin 2022. A wasu lokuta, jinkirin aikin na iya yin aiki a matsayin takura kan wani aiki. ikon jirgin sama don biyan bukatar fasinja.
A cikin kasashen da farfadowar tattalin arziki daga barkewar cutar ya yi sauri kuma rashin aikin yi ya yi kadan, matsananciyar kasuwannin kwadago da karancin kwararru na iya taimakawa wajen matsin lamba kan albashi. Ana sa ran lissafin albashin masana'antar zai kai dala biliyan 173 a shekarar 2022, sama da kashi 7.9% a shekarar 2021, kuma bai yi daidai da karuwar 4.3% na jimillar ayyukan yi ba.
Abubuwan Macro-Tattalin Arziki
Matsayin macroeconomic na duniya yana da mahimmanci ga hasashen masana'antu. Hasashen ya haษa da zato don ingantaccen ci gaban GDP na duniya na 3.4% a cikin 2022, ฦasa daga mai ฦarfi na 5.8% a bara. Haษaka hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya karu kuma ana sa ran zai ci gaba da ฦaruwa a cikin 2022, yana raguwa a cikin 2023. Kuma, yayin da yawan ribar riba ke ฦaruwa, ana sa ran ฦimar riba ta gaske ta kasance ฦasa ko mara kyau na dogon lokaci.
Dalili na Hadarin
Akwai abubuwan haษari da dama da ke da alaฦa da wannan hangen nesa.
War a Ukraine
Tasirin yakin da ake yi a Ukraine kan harkokin jiragen sama ba kadan ba ne idan aka kwatanta da bala'in jin kai da ke faruwa. Hasashen ya yi nuni da cewa yakin da ake yi a Ukraine ba zai wuce iyakarsa ba. Daga cikin mummunan tasirin haษakar sufurin jiragen sama, hauhawar farashin mai da ฦarancin buฦatu saboda rage jin daษin mabukaci zai zama mahimmanci.
- Fasinja: A hade, kasuwannin kasa da kasa na Rasha, Ukraine, Belarus, da Moldova sun dauki nauyin 2.3% na zirga-zirga a duniya a cikin 2021. Bugu da ฦari, kusan kashi 7% na zirga-zirgar fasinja na kasa da kasa (RPK) za su bi ta sararin samaniyar Rasha (bayanan 2021), wanda yanzu ya kasance. Rufewa ga masu aiki da yawa, galibi akan hanyoyin tafiya mai nisa tsakanin Asiya da Turai ko Arewacin Amurka. Akwai tsadar gaske mai yawa don sake zagayawa ga waษanda abin ya shafa.
- ofishinKusan 1% na zirga-zirgar jigilar kayayyaki na duniya ya samo asali ne daga Rasha da Ukraine. Babban tasiri shine a cikin yanki na musamman na kaya masu nauyi inda Rasha da Ukraine sune shugabannin kasuwa, kuma asarar ฦarfin da ya dace zai yi wuya a maye gurbinsa. Kuma kusan kashi 19% na jigilar kayayyaki na kasa da kasa (CTKs) na jigilar kayayyaki ta sararin samaniyar Rasha (bayanin 2021). Masu ษaukar kaya da takunkumin ya shafa suna fuskantar ฦarin farashi don sake turawa.
Haษaka Haษaka, Farashin Riba, da ฦimar Musanya
Adadin kudin ruwa yana karuwa yayin da bankunan tsakiya ke yaki da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Baya ga wadanda ke dauke da basussuka (waษanda za su ga hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya rage darajar basussukan su), hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana da illa kuma yana da illa ga tattalin arziฦin haraji ta hanyar rage ฦarfin sayayya. Akwai haษarin haษari ga wannan hangen nesa idan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ci gaba da ฦaruwa, kuma bankunan tsakiya na ci gaba da haษaka ฦimar riba.
Bugu da ฦari, ฦarfin rikodin dalar Amurka, idan ya ci gaba, zai yi mummunar tasiri kamar yadda dalar Amurka mai karfi ke ci gaba da raguwa gaba ษaya. Yana ฦara farashin kuษaษen gida na duk basussukan da ke da alaฦa da dalar Amurka kuma yana ฦara nauyin biyan kuษin shigo da mai da aka ฦima dalar Amurka shima.
Covid-19
Abubuwan da ake buฦata don tafiya yana da ฦarfi. Amma martanin gwamnati game da COVID-19 sun yi watsi da shawarar Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya cewa rufe kan iyaka ba hanya ce mai inganci ta shawo kan yaduwar kwayar cutar ba. Hasashen yana ษauka cewa ฦarfi da haษaka rigakafin yawan jama'a ga COVID-19 yana nufin ba za a sake maimaita waษannan kurakuran manufofin ba. Akwai, duk da haka, kasadar kasada idan gwamnatoci su dawo kan matakin rufe kan iyaka ga barkewar cutar nan gaba.
โDole ne gwamnatoci sun koyi darasinsu daga rikicin COVID-19. Rufe kan iyakoki na haifar da radadin tattalin arziki amma yana kawo kadan ta fuskar shawo kan yaduwar cutar. Tare da manyan matakan rigakafin yawan jama'a, hanyoyin jiyya na ci gaba, da hanyoyin sa ido, ana iya sarrafa haษarin COVID-19. A halin yanzu, babu wani yanayi da za a iya tabbatar da ฦimar ษan adam da tattalin arziฦin na ฦarin rufe iyakokin COVID-19, โin ji Walsh.
Sin
Kasuwar cikin gida ta kasar Sin ita kadai ta kai kusan kashi 10% na zirga-zirgar ababen hawa a duniya a shekarar 2019. Wannan hangen nesa yana daukar matakan sassaukar takunkumin COVID-19 sannu a hankali a cikin rabin na biyu na 2022. Tun da farko kawar da manufar Sin ta COVID-19, ba shakka, za ta inganta hangen nesa. ga masana'antu. Tsawaita aiwatar da manufofin COVID-XNUMX zai ci gaba da raunana kasuwannin cikin gida mafi girma na biyu a duniya da kuma yin barna tare da sarkar samar da kayayyaki a duniya.
3. Zagaye na Yanki
Ayyukan kudi a duk yankuna ana tsammanin haษakawa a cikin 2022 idan aka kwatanta da 2021 (duk yankuna sun inganta a cikin 2021 idan aka kwatanta da 2020 kuma).
Ana sa ran Arewacin Amurka zai ci gaba da kasancewa yankin da ya fi ฦarfin aiki kuma yanki ษaya tilo da zai dawo don samun riba a cikin 2022. Taimakon manyan kasuwannin cikin gida na Amurka da sake buษe kasuwannin duniya, gami da Arewacin Atlantika, ana hasashen ribar za ta kasance. $8.8 biliyan a 2022. Buฦatar (RPKs) ana sa ran isa 95.0% na pre-rikicin matakan (2019), da damar 99.5%.
Turai: A Turai, yakin Rasha da Ukraine zai ci gaba da kawo cikas ga tafiye-tafiye a cikin Turai da tsakanin Turai da Asiya-Pacific. Koyaya, ba a tsammanin yakin zai kawo cikas ga farfadowar balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron balaguron bala'in ya yi a yankin. Ana tsammanin buฦatar (RPKs) za ta kai kashi 2022% na matakan pre-rikicin (3.9), da ฦarfin 82.7%.
Ga kamfanonin jiragen sama na Asiya-Pacific, tsauraran takunkumin tafiye-tafiye (musamman a China), tare da fitar da allurar rigakafin da ba ta dace ba, sun ga yankin ya koma cikin murmurewa har zuwa yau. Yayin da hani ke raguwa, ana sa ran buฦatun balaguro zai ฦaru cikin sauri. Ana hasashen hasarar yanar gizo a cikin 2022 zai ragu zuwa dala biliyan 8.9. Ana tsammanin buฦatar (RPKs) za ta kai kashi 73.7% na matakan pre-rikicin (2019), da ฦarfi a 81.5%.
Adadin zirga-zirga a Latin Amurka ya murmure sosai a cikin 2021, tallafin kasuwannin cikin gida da ฦarancin hana tafiye-tafiye a ฦasashe da yawa. Hasashen kuษi na wasu kamfanonin jiragen sama, duk da haka, ya kasance mai rauni kuma ana sa ran yankin zai yi asarar dala biliyan 3.2 a wannan shekara. Ana sa ran bukatar (RPKs) za ta kai kashi 94.2% na matakan farko na rikicin (2019), da kuma iya aiki a 93.2%. barka da haษakawa ga mutane da yawa. A duk faษin yanki, ana sa ran asarar dukiyoyin za su ragu zuwa dala biliyan 1.9 a cikin 2022, daga asarar dala biliyan 4.7 a bara. Ana tsammanin buฦatar (RPKs) za ta kai kashi 79.1% na matakan pre-rikicin (2019), da ฦarfi a 80.5%.
In Afirka, ฦananan adadin allurar rigakafin ya rage farfadowar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama a yankin zuwa yau. Koyaya, akwai yuwuwar wasu kamawa a wannan shekara, wanda zai ba da gudummawa ga haษaka ayyukan kuษi. Ana hasashen hasarar net ษin zai zama dala biliyan 0.7 a cikin 2022. Ana tsammanin buฦatar (RPKs) za ta kai kashi 72.0% na matakan pre-rikicin (2019), da ฦarfin 75.2%.
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