Tasiri kan masana'antar Balaguro da Balaguro ta Amurka da aka bincika: Ta yaya za a rama don COVID-19?

A yau shugaban Amurka Trump ya ce kudin rufe masana’antar tafiye-tafiye da yawon bude ido na Amurka (hotel, gidajen cin abinci, kamfanonin jiragen sama) ya kai kusan dala biliyan 30 a wata, kuma gwamnati na shirin biyan diyya ga asarar da aka yi. Shugaban ya yi nuni da cewa ba laifin mai otal ko gidan abinci ba ne, bako ya daina fitowa. "Gwamnati ta dakatar da shi", in ji Shugaba Trump.

Wani sabon bincike da Hukumar Kula da Balaguro ta Amurka ta fitar a ranar Talata wanda ya rage tafiye-tafiye saboda coronavirus zai haifar da jimillar dala biliyan 809 kan tattalin arzikin Amurka tare da kawar da ayyukan Amurka miliyan 4.6 da suka shafi balaguro a wannan shekara. Abubuwan da ake samu a cikin Maris da Afrilu zai kasance 75% ƙasa da al'ada.

Mummunan lambobin tasirin, wanda Cibiyar Tattalin Arzikin Yawon shakatawa ta shirya don Ƙungiyar Balaguro ta Amurka, Shugaban Ƙungiyar Balaguro na Amurka kuma Babban Darakta Roger Dow ne ya gabatar da shi a taron Fadar White House ranar Talata tare da Shugaba Trump, Mataimakin Shugaban Pence, Sakataren Kasuwanci Wilbur Ross, da sauran shugabannin balaguro.

"Rikicin lafiya ya mamaye hankalin jama'a da na gwamnati daidai gwargwado, amma bala'in da ya haifar ga masu daukar ma'aikata da ma'aikata ya riga ya kasance a nan kuma zai yi muni," in ji Dow Talata. “Kasuwancin da ke da alaƙa da balaguro suna ɗaukar Amurkawa miliyan 15.8, kuma idan ba za su iya ci gaba da kunna fitilunsu ba, ba za su iya ci gaba da biyan ma’aikatansu albashi ba. Ba tare da tsauraran matakan ba da agajin gaggawa da bala'i ba, yanayin murmurewa zai kasance mai tsayi da wahala, kuma ƙananan matakan tattalin arziki za su ji mafi munin sa. "

Dow ya lura cewa kashi 83% na ma'aikatan tafiye-tafiye ƙananan kasuwanci ne.

Wasu fitattun abubuwan da aka gano a cikin binciken tasirin tafiya:

• Jimlar kashe kuɗi kan tafiye-tafiye a cikin Amurka - sufuri, wurin kwana, dillali, abubuwan jan hankali da gidajen cin abinci - ana hasashen zai yi faɗuwar dala biliyan 355 na shekara, ko kuma 31%. Wannan ya fi sau shida tasirin 9/11.
• Kiyasin hasarar da masana'antar tafiye-tafiye ke yi kawai sun yi muni sosai don tura Amurka cikin wani tsaikon koma bayan tattalin arziki - wanda ake tsammanin zai wuce aƙalla kashi uku cikin huɗu, tare da Q2 2020 shine ƙaramin matsayi.
• Hasashen ayyukan da suka shafi balaguro miliyan 4.6 da aka yi hasashe, za su, da kansu, kusan ninki biyu na rashin aikin yi na Amurka (3.5% zuwa 6.3%).

"Wannan yanayin gaba daya ba tare da wani misali ba," in ji Dow. "Saboda lafiyar tattalin arziƙin na dogon lokaci, ma'aikata da ma'aikata suna buƙatar taimako yanzu daga wannan bala'i wanda yanayi ya haifar da gaba ɗaya daga ikonsu."

A taron fadar White House da aka yi a ranar Talata, Dow ya bukaci gwamnati da ta yi la'akari da dala biliyan 150 a cikin tallafin gaba daya ga bangaren balaguro. Daga cikin hanyoyin da aka ba da shawarar:

• Kafa Asusun Tsabtace Ma'aikata Tafiya
• Samar da Kayan Aikin Liquidity na Gaggawa don kasuwancin balaguro
• Haɓaka da gyara shirye-shiryen lamunin SBA don tallafawa ƙananan kamfanoni da ma'aikatansu.

Oxford Economics, tare da haɗin gwiwa tare da kamfaninta na Tattalin Arziki na Yawon shakatawa, sun tsara faɗuwar da ake tsammani a masana'antar balaguron Amurka a 2020 sakamakon cutar Coronavirus. Sannan mun tsara tasirin tattalin arzikin waɗannan asarar masana'antar balaguro ta fuskar GDP, rashin aikin yi, da haraji.

Asarar Masana'antar Balaguro Ana sa ran raguwar kashi 31% na duk shekara.

Wannan ya hada da raguwar kudaden shiga da kashi 75% cikin watanni biyu masu zuwa da kuma ci gaba da asara a sauran shekarar da ta kai dala biliyan 355. Asarar GDP Asarar masana'antar balaguro zai haifar da tasirin GDP na dala biliyan 450 a cikin 2020.

Muna tsara tattalin arzikin Amurka don shiga tsaka mai wuya dangane da faɗuwar da ake tsammani na tafiye-tafiye kawai. Mai yiyuwa ne koma bayan tattalin arziki zai wuce a kalla kashi uku cikin hudu tare da mafi karancin maki a cikin kwata na biyu na 2020. Hasarar haraji Za a samu raguwar harajin dala biliyan 55 a sakamakon raguwar tafiye-tafiye a shekarar 2020.

Asarar Aiki An yi hasashen tattalin arzikin Amurka zai yi asarar ayyuka miliyan 4.6 sakamakon raguwar tafiye-tafiye a shekarar 2020. Yawan marasa aikin yi na kashi 3.5% a watan Fabrairu zai karu sosai a cikin watanni masu zuwa. Asarar aikin yi da ke da alaƙa da balaguro kaɗai zai tura yawan marasa aikin yi har zuwa 6.3% a cikin 'yan watanni masu zuwa.

Damar Lokaci Mafi girman damar rage waɗannan asara ita ce rage lokacin da ake buƙata don murmurewa.

Yayin da lokutan dawowa daga kamuwa da cutar da ke da alaƙa sun bambanta daga watanni 12-16, ana iya rage wannan ta hanyar haɓaka dabarun da goyan bayan masana'antar balaguro. Mun bincika al'amura guda biyu don rage tsawon lokacin asara.

LABARI NA 1: CIKAKKEN CIKI YA FARA A CIKIN JUNE Labarin yana ɗauka cewa an sami cikakkiyar farfadowa a watan Yuni.

Kowane wata daga Yuni-Disamba yana ba da matsakaicin riba na dala biliyan 17.8 a cikin GDP da dala biliyan 2.2 a cikin haraji. Jimlar fa'idodin za su tattara dala biliyan 100 a cikin kudaden shiga na masana'antar balaguro, dala biliyan 15 na haraji, da kuma guraben ayyuka miliyan 1.6. LABARI NA 2: 50% FARUWA A CIKIN JUNE Yanayin yana ɗaukar cewa ana haɓaka farfadowa da 50% (dangane da aikin da ake sa ran) farawa a watan Yuni. A cikin wannan yanayin, kowane wata yana ba da yuwuwar riba na dala biliyan 8.9 a cikin GDP da dala biliyan 1.1 a cikin haraji.

Jimlar fa'idodin za su tattara dala biliyan 50 a cikin kudaden shiga na masana'antar balaguro, dala biliyan 7.7 na haraji, da kuma sake dawo da ayyukan yi 823,000