Kasuwar wahala tana nufin ƙarin shekaru na wahala ga Yamma, ba na Tsakiyar Gabas ba

Tare da saka hannun jari kai tsaye na ketare (FDI) yana kwararowa sosai zuwa Gabas ta Tsakiya, musamman Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa, abubuwan da ke faruwa ba su daina tsayawa ba. Rahoton na Barclays Wealth Insight ya ce ana sa ran FDI za ta shiga cikin UAE a arewacin dala biliyan 100 a cikin shekaru hudu masu zuwa. Rahoton ya kara da cewa a bara kadai, yawancin alluran FDI sun fito ne daga EU wanda ke da kashi 35 cikin dari na jimillar, sai kuma kasashen Gulf da kashi 26 cikin 19, sai Asiya-Pacific (wanda Japan ke jagoranta) da kashi 2 cikin XNUMX sannan a karshe, kasa da kashi XNUMX cikin dari. daga Amurka.

Hasashen FDI na shekarar 2011 zai wakilci kashi 33 na GDP ga kasar Dubai, kasa mafi arziki a yankin Gulf.

Adadin jarin ya dogara ne akan hasashen cewa farashin mai na kasa da kasa zai kasance sama da matsakaicin tsayin daka a cikin shekaru 5 masu zuwa kuma ana sa ran yawan masu ruwa da tsaki a yankin zai ci gaba da karuwa.

A takaice dai, ku yi tsammanin dukiyar ba za ta zagaya wani yanki ba sai Gabas ta Tsakiya har sai shekara guda bayan cikar shekaru goma.

Gabas ta tsakiya ɗaya ce daga cikin kasuwannin da suke haɓaka cikin sauri saboda ci gaban tattalin arziki mai dorewa da yawon buɗe ido da shiga ciki. Manyan samfuran otal suna da manyan ayyukan ci gaba a yankin, kuma sarƙoƙi na gida kamar Rotana da Jumeirah suna haɓaka don shiga cikin kasuwa inda ƙimar zama da matakan RevPar ya fi matsakaicin ƙasashen duniya. Masu zuba jari suna cin gajiyar yanayin da ake samu na samar da kayayyaki kamar na Dubai, kuma ribar da ake samu ta kasuwanci ta fi Amurka da Turai saboda tsadar ma’aikata da kashi 35 cikin 52 na kudin sashen a yankin, sabanin kashi XNUMX na Amurka, in ji PKF. Binciken Benchmark Hotel. Maɗaukakin RevPars kuma ana tafiyar da su ta babban adadin manyan otal-otal a cikin kayan aikin samarwa.

A Dubai, zama ya wuce kashi 88 cikin 27,000 a cikin watannin da suka gabata. Rahoton ya kuma bayyana cewa samun kudin shiga kafin kayyade cajin shine $49 - kashi 20 cikin dari na kudaden shiga tare da sashen dakin zama mafi fa'ida (farashin aikin sashen kasa da kashi 38 cikin dari na kudaden shiga da abinci da abin sha ba su da fa'ida, yana tafiyar da kusan kashi XNUMX cikin dari na kudaden shiga wanda ke gudana a kusan kashi XNUMX). Ya yi daidai da ƙa'idodin ƙasa da ƙasa Saboda farashin aiki galibi F&B ne ke tafiyar da shi, wannan yana haifar da yuwuwar riba mai yawa na mafi yawan kaddarorin masu matsakaicin matsakaici ba tare da bayar da F&B ba da otal ɗin tattalin arziki a Gabas ta Tsakiya, bisa ga binciken HotelBenchmark.

Amma shin Gabas ta Tsakiya za ta kai ga gaci fiye da kima kuma don haka fara kasuwa ya ragu?

Kasuwanni masu saurin bunƙasa ko da yaushe suna shiga cikin lokutan da wadata ke tafiya kaɗan da buƙatu ko girgizar buƙatun ya faru inda buƙatun ke raguwa na ɗan gajeren lokaci. "Babu wata kasuwa da ba ta yi wani gyara ba na wani lokaci zuwa wani mataki," in ji Arthur de Haast, Shugaba na Duniya, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels. "Yana da sauri sosai ga yankin a nan. Lallai layin samar da kayayyaki yana bunƙasa a takamaiman kasuwanni. A cikin 2009 zuwa 2010, lokacin da kasuwa ta kai matsayinta, idan an sami rauni a bangaren mabukaci, kuma Amurkawa ba su yi balaguro sosai ba, to za a yi gyara."

A Gabas ta Tsakiya, babu wata damuwa mai tsanani a bangaren zuba jari na kasuwa. Akwai ɗan wahala saboda ƙarancin kuɗi a Amurka. Gabaɗaya, duk da haka akwai ƙarancin aiki kawai, in ji de Haast.

"A cikin kasuwar hada-hadar kudi, ba a sami Armageddon da wasu suka fahimta ba tukuna. Amma girgizar ƙasa za ta yi yawa duk da haka kuma ba za a iya tantance sakamakon ba. Lamarin da za a yi wa kanmu gwiwa shi ne girman hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kuma duk kamfanonin da ke cikin sauran masana'antu sun riga sun wuce gona da iri, wanda muke gani a cikin masana'antar kera motoci," in ji Philip Lader, shugaban WPP Group kuma babban mai ba da shawara ga Morgan Stanley. .

Lader ya kara da cewa idan muka mai da hankali kan karfin karfin da kuma abubuwan da suka faru na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, to watakila za a sami kwanciyar hankali ta fuskar sake farfado da tattalin arziki na hakika wanda ba za mu iya gani a wasu bangarori kamar abin da muka gani a cibiyoyin hada-hadar kudi ba. "A duk lokacin da dole ne a sake sake farashi ko rage amfani, muna ganin a tarihi cewa ba koyaushe yana zuwa da sauri ba. Saboda haka, yana yiwuwa a cikin ma'anar tsakiyar lokaci, za mu iya samun kwanciyar hankali. Amma wannan ba yana nufin zai zama ɗan gajeren lokaci ba. Rushewar aƙalla na iya yiwuwa, idan ba fiye da yadda suke ba,” in ji shi.

A cikin GCC, yawan man da ake fitarwa zai karu da kashi 12.5 cikin 400 a shekara mai zuwa, in ji rahoton Barclays, yana mai cewa IMF ya bayyana cewa man da ake fitarwa a shekara daga yankin Gulf zai kai dala biliyan 450 kuma ana hasashen zai haura dala biliyan 2008 a shekara mai zuwa. Yayin da koma bayan tattalin arziki ke cutar da Amurka kuma yayin da Arewacin Amurka, Turai da Asiya suka mamaye ta hanyar matsi, labarin tattalin arzikin GCC yana ci gaba da katsewa. Ana hasashen ci gaban GDP na UAE na shekarar 8.3 da kashi 11.7 cikin dari, ana sa ran zai kai kashi 64,000 cikin dari a Qatar, a cewar sashen leken asiri na tattalin arziki. Qatar tana daya daga cikin manyan matakan GDP na kowane mutum a duniya sama da dala XNUMX a yau.

Dangane da tasirin Gabas ta Tsakiya, kasancewar Amurka shekarar zabe, Sanata Obama ya nuna aniyar daukar karin kasada dangane da batutuwa kamar Gabas ta Tsakiya, in ji Lader. ” Ko babu isassun sansanonin, dole ne ya tantance. Yana da wuya a tantance da gaske,” in ji Lader.