Delta, AMR na iya haifar da asarar dala biliyan biyu

Delta Air Lines Inc., American Airlines da sauran dillalan Amurka na iya haɗawa da kashi na biyar kai tsaye kwata na asarar biliyoyin daloli, wanda ya kai ga “rashin ruwa” yayin da koma bayan tattalin arziki ya gurɓata kashe kuɗi da tafiye-tafiye.

Manyan kamfanonin jiragen sama na Amurka guda tara da za su fara gobe na iya bayar da rahoton asarar dala biliyan 2.3 a cikin rubu'in farko, in ji Michael Derchin, wani manazarci na FTN Equity Capital Markets Corp. Helane Becker na Jesup & Lamont Securities yana aiwatar da gibin dala biliyan 1.9, yayin da Hunter Keay na Stifel Nicolaus & Co. ya kiyasta dala biliyan 2.1 ga manyan dillalai biyar.

Rage karfin kamfanonin jiragen sama bai isa ba don shawo kan raguwar zirga-zirgar fasinja na kashi 8 ko fiye a kowane wata na kwata. Dillalan sun rage farashin da fatan dawo da matafiya, wanda ya lalata kudaden shiga na raka'a, ma'aunin farashi da buƙatu, aƙalla kashi 17 cikin ɗari a watan da ya gabata a duka kamfanonin jiragen sama na Continental Inc. da US Airways Group Inc.

"Zan yi mamakin idan kashi na farko ba shine mafi muni ba," in ji Derchin, wanda ke zaune a New York kuma ya ba da shawarar siyan hannun jari na jirgin sama. "Kamar yadda kyakkyawan aiki kamar yadda kamfanonin jiragen sama suka yi kafin lokaci don rage iya aiki, har yanzu bai isa ba don gudanar da farashin farashi don duba mummunan tattalin arzikin."

Kwata-kwata mai yiwuwa ita ce "babban ruwa" ga masana'antar, tare da zirga-zirgar ababen hawa da farashin farashi a lokacin bazara na al'ada, in ji Derchin.

"Mun fara ganin alamar kasa a wasu kasuwanni, kamar kasuwar cikin gida ta Amurka," in ji Babban Jami'in Gudanarwa Glenn Tilton na United Airlines iyaye UAL Corp. a Tokyo makon da ya gabata.

Ista Shift

Ana sa ran asarar za ta karu daga shekara guda da ta gabata, a wani bangare saboda hutun Ista ya kasance a cikin kwata na biyu a shekara ta 2009 bayan faruwa a cikin kwata na farko na 2008. Haɗin gibin ga manyan dillalai tara a cikin kwata na farko na bara shine dala biliyan 1.4 ban da farashin lokaci ɗaya.

Mahaifiyar American Airlines AMR Corp. rahoton gobe, 15 ga Afrilu na Southwest Airlines Co. mako mai zuwa, Delta, UAL, Continental Airlines Inc., US Airways Group Inc. da JetBlue Airways Corp. sakamakon fitar da sakamakon.

Asara na kwata-kwata ya biyo bayan gibin da aka samu a shekara na sama da dala biliyan 15 a bara yayin da kamfanonin jiragen sama suka yanke ayyukan yi, da ajiye jiragen sama, da biyan karin man fetur da kuma rubuta kimar kadari. Ban da abubuwa na lokaci ɗaya, asarar su ta 2008 ta kasance dala biliyan 3.8.

Stifel's Keay ya kiyasta asarar kusan dala miliyan 2009 a shekara ta 375 ga manyan dillalai biyar, wani bita daga hasashensa na watan Janairu na ribar kusan dala biliyan 3.5.

Kamfanin Becker na Jesup & Lamont ya yi kiyasin cewa manyan kamfanonin jiragen sama 10 za su samu ribar da ta kai kusan dala biliyan 1 a shekarar, kasa da rabin hasashen da ta yi a baya.

'Mafi Muni'

Becker, da ke New York, ya kiyasta cewa kudaden shiga na kowace kujera da ke tafiyar mil mil sun ragu da kusan kashi 12 cikin dari a cikin kwata na farko. Ta ce tana sa ran za ta ragu da kusan kashi 7 zuwa kashi 9 cikin dari a wannan kwata, ta ragu da kashi 4 zuwa kashi 7 a cikin kwata na uku sannan kuma a dan samu canji kadan a kwata na karshe.

"Akwai ƙananan abubuwa mafi muni da za su zo" ga sauran 2009, in ji Becker.

Kashewa masu amfani da lambobi masu ƙira waɗanda ke nuna faɗaɗa tattalin arziƙi na iya fara sake farfado da tafiye-tafiyen kasuwanci, in ji Robert Mann na RW Mann & Co., wani kamfani mai ba da shawara a Port Washington, New York.

"Idan ba haka ba, za mu koma gefe ne kawai, kuma a gefe ba taimako," in ji shi.

Asarar kashi na farko-kwata yana nuna buƙatar ƙarin rage ƙarfin aiki bayan ƙarshen lokacin balaguron bazara, in ji Derchin. Manyan dillalai, wadanda suka yanke sama da kashi 10 cikin dari na tashi, suna bukatar rage kashi 5 zuwa kashi 10 cikin dari, in ji shi.

Wasu daga cikin waɗancan raguwar wataƙila za su kasance cikin sabis na ƙasa da ƙasa “saboda abubuwa suna da wari, aƙalla akan wasu hanyoyin,” in ji Mann.

Matsakaicin Matsakaici

Har yanzu, hannun jarin kamfanonin jiragen sama sun sake dawowa tun daga ranar 5 ga Maris, lokacin da index na Bloomberg US Airlines Index na dillalai 13 ya kai ga mafi ƙarancin ƙima. Kididdigar ta haura kashi 61 daga wannan ranar zuwa yau. A bana, ya ragu da kashi 37 cikin dari.

William Greene, wani manazarci Morgan Stanley a New York, ya ce a cikin wani rahoto na Afrilu 7, "Wataƙila sake dawo da ra'ayi na iya haifar da hannun jari mafi girma a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci."

Delta ta fadi da 51 cents, ko kashi 6.8, zuwa dala 7 da karfe 4:15 na yamma a cikin hada-hadar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta New York, yayin da AMR ta ragu da cents 47, ko kashi 10, zuwa $4.22 kuma Continental ta ki $1.31, ko kashi 9.9, zuwa $11.88. UAL ya zame da cents 71, ko kashi 11, zuwa $6.05 a cinikin Kasuwancin Nasdaq. Kamfanonin jiragen sama sun yi ƙasa tare da fa'idar hajoji bayan faɗuwar da ba zato ba tsammani na tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace da farashin masu samarwa.

Ƙananan Farashi

Duk da yake ƙananan farashin farashi bai riga ya haifar da tafiye-tafiyen kasuwanci ba, rangwamen da ake samu a wannan bazara na iya farfado da buƙatun hutu, in ji Mann. Wasu tikitin zuwa Turai suna da arha fiye da yadda suke a cikin shekaru biyar, in ji shi.

"Mutane ba za su iya yin hutu ba saboda farashin farashi yana da arha kuma cinikin yana da yawa," in ji Jesup & Lamont Becker.

Ragewar na iya yin aiki, aƙalla ga dillalan da ke tashi da farko a cikin Amurka Daga cikin manyan dilolin Amurka, Kudu maso Yamma, Alaska Air Group Inc. da AirTran Holdings Inc. sun cika kaso mafi girma na kujeru a cikin Maris fiye da shekara guda da ta gabata.

Jiragen sama na Fuller za su taimaka wa masu jigilar kayayyaki su sanya kananan riba a cikin kashi na biyu da na uku, in ji David Swierenga, shugaban kamfanin AeroEcon, wani kamfanin ba da shawara kan harkokin jiragen sama a Round Rock, Texas.

"A cikin shekarar, ba na tsammanin mafi kyau fiye da karya ko da," in ji shi. "Masu jigilar kayayyaki gaba ɗaya za su sami riba a wannan shekara, amma ba zai zama wani abu da za a rubuta a gida ba."