Shekarar 2008 tayi tsada don kasuwancin otal na Amurka

Los Angeles, California (eTN) - A Taron Kasuwancin Kasuwanci na Amurka (ALIS) wanda aka gudanar a makon da ya gabata a LA, manyan masana otal sun yi hasashen rushewar masana'antar a cikin kwanakin halin yanzu, ko koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zuwa. Babban abubuwan da suka shafi 2008 suna nuna ƙimar zama; Matsakaicin farashi da kudaden shiga suna sassauƙa matsakaici a cikin Amurka, bisa ga tattalin arzikin Oxford. Hasashen hada-hadar hannun jarin otal a Amurka na iya yi kamar ba haske ba, amma maiyuwa ya inganta. Shekarar 2007 ta ga babban faduwa, amma 2008 na iya sake komawa a wasu kasuwanni da manyan biranen bayan 'yan hiccups.

A cewar Mark Lomanno, shugaban kamfanin Smith Travel Research, masana’antar ta ga karancin mazauna a kashi 0.1 da matsakaita na yau da kullun ko kuma ADR ya ragu da kashi 5.9 cikin 2007 a cikin watan Agusta na 2007. Kamfanin Lomanno ya ba da rahoton cewa ginshikin otal din sun kasance masu karfi tare da yawan masu zama kuma RevPARs na cikin koshin lafiya duk da bashin runarfafawa a cikin 0.6. CMididdigar laifuka na CMBS don sashin kwana sun kasance a cikin mafi ƙarancin kaso 2007 cikin 25 na kwata na uku. Ya tuna, "Bukatar a cikin manyan kasuwanni 11 kafin Satumba 25 ta tashi da sauri, hanya kafin raunin farashin da ya sa kasuwanci a cikin manyan kasuwanni 2001 ya yi rauni tun kafin 9." Bayan saurin tsomawa da karuwar bazata bayan 11-25, bukatar da ke saman XNUMX ta daidaita. Ba a karɓi kayan aiki ba.

“Koma bayan tattalin arzikin yau zai shafi manyan kasuwannin Amurka 25 daga kasa zuwa sama maimakon zuwa sama. Yankunan kasuwa daban-daban zasu shafar daban ta hanyar koma baya daga ƙasa zuwa sama kuma. Abubuwan buƙata da buƙata zasu haɓaka a kowane ɓangare amma farashi zai kasance mai rauni a kasuwa. Manyan otal masu tsada da tsada a cikin shekarun da suka gabata sun fara raguwa da sauri fiye da otal din tattalin arziki da ke nuna tsayayyen hoto, ”in ji Lomanno. Amma bukatun yau na sama da na yau da kullun sun tabbata; farashin da ADRs suna da ƙarfi; da dukiyar tattalin arziki suna ta girma duk da haka a hankali.

Hotuna ne daban-daban a halin yanzu, yana nuna jinkirin lokaci a masana'antar otal. Manyan kasuwanni 25 da manyan kaddarorin za a shafa amma ba kamar na sakandare da na manyan makarantu ba ko waɗanda ke kan ƙarshen ƙarshen sikelin farashi. “Akwai dakuna 211,000 da ake ginawa a Amurka, kusan 166,000 da aka tsara za a bude a shekarar 2008; amma kashi 65 ne kawai za su bude a zahiri. Za a sami ƙaruwa a rufe ɗakuna, ƙarin wadata cikin wadata na kashi 2.2 zuwa kashi 2.3; buƙatun zai kai sama zuwa ƙasa da kashi 1.4, ”inji shi.

R. Mark Woodworth, shugaban PKF Hospitality Research, ya ce idan ya zo ga gidaje, yawancin kasuwanni sun riga sun shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Masu amfani suna yanke shawara mai tsauri da nauyin ƙasa ya durƙusa, ƙaramin rikici, haɗuwa da ƙarin farashin mai da gas. “Damuwa, kada ka firgita. Rikicin kuɗi ne na tsarin duniya. Inda muke da gaske shine yanayin ɓacin rai na kasuwa da kuma wadata da buƙatu, ”inji shi.

Amurka ta fara wannan shekaru goma cikin kyakkyawan yanayi. Woodworth na da kwarin gwiwa game da hasashen wannan sabuwar shekarar. “Lokuta mafi kyau an gani a cikin shekaru 2 zuwa 3 da suka gabata. Muna tafiya kan wannan hanyar a yau. Menene kyau game da tattalin arzikin 2008? Zamu ga ragin riba wanda zai rage farashin bashi. Dollararancin dala yana nufin ƙaruwa cikin tafiya (wanda ke tashi tun 2006); tsadar kayayyaki sun taimaka wajen dakatar da hauhawar rashin aikin yi wanda ya taimaka wajen rage kudin kwadagon da ake yi a otal din. ” Kuma yayin da zamani ya sanya aka wahala a gina otal-otal, amma masu otal-otal kaɗan ne suka iya ginawa kuma suka aiwatar da shi duk da koma baya, in ji Woodworth.

Ba duka ba ne rosy. Abin da ba shi da kyau game da 2008? Wannan rashin tabbas yana cutar da buƙata; kudin sufuri suna ta hawa; da kuma cewa masana suna tsammanin hauhawar farashin shekaru 10.

"Mun lura da karuwar maki 100 tun daga kwata na uku na 2006, amma bukatar ta kasance a baya bayan samarwa tun '06. Muna da shekaru 2 na kasa da matsakaicin girma a cikin 2001-03, wanda ya canza jimillar aikin yi - mafi kyawun hasashen buƙatun masaukin masana'antu, "in ji Woodworth. Ya yi gargadin, wannan kwata na 3rd na 2008 zai shaida mafi ƙanƙanta wurin girma. A cikin 2008, wadata zai wuce buƙatu; duk da haka bukatar za ta kama a cikin 2009. Mazauna za su kasance ƙasa da matsakaicin farawa a shekara mai zuwa, amma haɓaka ƙimar da RevPARs za su kasance tabbatacce a cikin 09, in ji Woodworth.

Don amfanar masana'antu, wani shiri na kara kuzari zai shigar da sabon kudi ga tattalin arzikin kamar abin da aka yi a 2001-2002. "Alurar $150 B za ta taimaka wa Amurkawa dangane da aikin dogon lokaci. Ƙarfafa wannan adadin zai riƙe wannan ilimin halin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Duk da haka, ba magani ba ne ga yanayin gidaje, "in ji Gene Sperling, tsohon mai ba da shawara kan tattalin arziki na fadar White House a lokacin tsohon shugaban kasa Bill Clinton, kuma tsohon darekta na Majalisar Tattalin Arziki ta Kasa. Ya kara da cewa Tarayyar Tarayya ta nuna a cikin kwanaki na ƙarshe cewa za ta iya yin 'ƙarfin hali da sauri' bayan yanke maki 75. "Feds sun ba kasuwa wani kwarin gwiwa baya. Amma ban ga rates suna motsawa cikin sauri ba. Gaskiyar tambaya ita ce ta yaya nisa farashin zai iya tafiya. Tunanin daskare manyan rates azaman tsoho zai haifar da ƙwarin gwiwar mutane don tarawa tare. Tare da dala da matsayi na kasafin kuɗi kamar yadda yake da rauni kamar yadda yake, tambayoyi suna dagewa game da ko Fed na iya zama m kuma zai iya ƙarfafa Washington don hada yawan raguwa tare da ci gaba, "in ji shi yana numfashi, babu sassauci sosai a can.

Sperling ya jaddada cewa adadi mai yawa na mutane za su zauna a gidajensu idan za su iya samun tsayayyen shekara talatin a wani matakin da ya dace. Kwashe ma'aikata, wanda aka mai da hankali a wata unguwa, ya haifar da mummunan illa ga farashin gida akan kowa. “Hillary Clinton da Gwamna Arnold Schwarzenegger sun ba da shawarar a daskarar da farashin a matsayin na farko na‘ yan shekaru. Amma mutane da yawa sun yi gunaguni. Matsalar yanzu ita ce muna juyawa zuwa wani lokaci na sake saitawa, ”in ji shi.

Biyan ayyukan Lomanno bisa la'akari da farashin saboda intanet zai dandana laushi. Ya ce farashin a shekara ta 2008 zai dan ragu da kashi 5.2 bisa dari daga 2007; duk da haka, ba za a ji daɗin wannan yanayin a cikin manyan kasuwanni ko manyan matakai ba. "Idan wadata & buƙata da lambobin ADR masu fa'ida daidai ne, REVPAR zai ga ci gaban kashi 4.4," in ji shi.

“Rashin musanya ya kasance abokin masana’antar otal a bara. Littattafai a fadin Expedia da ADR na 4th kwata 2007 sun yi kyau. Idan muka daidaita kudaden da ake kashewa ga mutanen Kanada ko Australiya da ke ziyartar Amurka, suna biyan kuɗi kaɗan a cikin kuɗin gida lokacin da suka zo Amurka yayin da otal ɗin ke karba gabaɗaya. Mun ga alal misali, dangin Jamus suna ciyar da Yuro 26 ƙarin lokacin da suka zo (babu komai a gare su), amma guguwar iska ce ga mai siyar da ke karɓar ɗan ƙari, ”in ji Paul Brown, shugaban Expedia ta Arewacin Amurka. Ya kara da cewa karuwar kashi 20 cikin XNUMX na karfin iska da farashin jiragen sama, bambance-bambancen canjin kudaden kasashen waje wanda 'ya riga ya kunshi' Amurkawa da ke fita da kuma tilasta tafiye-tafiyen cikin gida ya karu, ya zama ainihin abubuwan da ke tasiri ga bukatar masauki baki daya.

Imar otal don kyawawan kaddarorin sun kasance masu ƙarfi. Brown ya ce, har yanzu kwastomomi suna da fahimtar kimar; tallace-tallace, tallace-tallace da tayin suna motsa su. Otal-otal a cikin shekara ta 2008 za su haɓaka lokacin yin rajista na kashi 4 cikin ɗari tare da tallace-tallace kan ci gaba. Abokan ciniki koyaushe suna karɓar tayin talla. Abokan ciniki, a cikin wannan tattalin arziƙin, suna cin gajiyar cinikin farashi mafi ƙanƙanci.
Lomanno ya ce: "Idan hasashenmu kan samarwa da nema ya zama daidai, wuraren zama zai karu da kashi 63.2 cikin dari a shekara ta 2008 zuwa kaso 63.7 cikin 2009 a shekara ta XNUMX."

Said Woodworth ya ce: “Idan hasashenmu ya yi daidai, rabin manyan kasuwanni 50 a Amurka, za su sami raguwa a wannan shekara saboda wadata da yanayin buƙatu. A cikin 2009, wadata zai haɓaka da buƙata. Girman RevPAR zai zama mai kyau a wannan shekara. Hauhawar farashi ba zai haifar da matsala a kasuwar aiki ba. Taushin kasuwa zai zama ɗan gajeren lokaci ne kawai. Capididdigar Hotelimar otal suna cikin ƙarancin tarihi tare da kasancewa 2007 a ƙasan sikelin ƙimar; duk da haka, za a sami karin maki 160 da ke daukar kasuwar har zuwa karshen shekaru goma. ”

Lomanno ya ce, a cikin shekarar zabe, samar da kayayyaki zai bunkasa kashi biyu da digo biyu cikin dari.
Bin diddigin sakamakon su yayin shekarar zabe tun daga 1929, lokacin da mazauna ke raguwa, 2/3 na lokacin, dan takarar Republican ya ci zabe. “Lokacin da mukamai a cikin shekarar zabe suka fadi kasa da matsakaita na tsawon lokaci, kashi 55 na lokacin, dan takarar Democrat ya yi nasara. Mun yi imanin za mu sami ƙasa da matsakaiciyar matsakaita, "rufe Woodworth.